Stochastic Modeling – 52 weeks stock price prediction.

Disclaimer: The data interpretation is purely for educational purpose. For investors, please evaluate your own options; don’t use these predictions for investment purpose. I do not endorse or uphold any of my findings for investment purpose. IT’S PURELY FOR UNDERSTANDING THE SUBJECT.

Prediction of share price for the next 52 weeks. 

Preface:

Company Name: Infosys Ltd.

1.This model contains the data of 52weeks(31-Jul-2010 to 31-Jul-2011) Infosys Ltd equity shares trading on Bombay Stock Exchange.
2.The source of the data is from BSE India (http://www.bseindia.com)
3.This model aims @ calculating the Volatility of Infy Stock and also to project the next 52weeks equity share price for Infosys Ltd.

Some of the findings from the historical data are:

The projected share price when bifurcated into volatile and certain component looks like:

Log Normal Distribution of share price of Infosys Ltd looks like:

Inference:

Higher returns in Infosys share is subjected to more of volatile component rather than the certain component. The certain component in the share price is projecting a downward trend. Thus, we can infer that the Infosys share is not that attractive for investment and the share is likely to trade in the range:   1431 to 5294.